The Announcement

On April 8, 2025, Ken Paxton announced his candidacy for the United States Senate, challenging incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. The announcement came in the wake of — not despite — a record that includes felony indictments, impeachment by his own party, whistleblower firings, multiple affairs, a divorce, and documented patterns of abuse of office.

Over the following year that gamble paid off. On March 3, 2026, Paxton finished a close second to Cornyn in the first round of the Republican primary, denying the incumbent an outright majority and forcing a runoff. In the days before the May 26 runoff, Donald Trump endorsed Paxton — and Paxton went on to defeat Cornyn by a roughly two-to-one margin, becoming the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate. He now faces Democrat James Talarico in the November 3, 2026 general election.

For many observers, the Senate campaign represented the ultimate test of whether accountability still functions in American politics. Paxton's decision to run was a calculated gamble: that his base of support, forged through aggressive conservative positions and loyalty to Donald Trump, would outweigh the accumulated weight of scandal and legal jeopardy. The Republican primary electorate gave its answer.

Paxton Wins the Nomination

The March 3, 2026 primary set up a one-on-one showdown. With incumbent Senator John Cornyn taking roughly 42 percent of the vote and Paxton close behind at about 40 percent, neither cleared the 50 percent needed to win outright — Representative Wesley Hunt finished a distant third — and the contest went to a May 26 runoff.

The runoff was not close. Paxton defeated Cornyn by a margin of roughly 64 percent to 36 percent — about 28 percentage points. In doing so, Cornyn, first elected in 2002, became the first Texas Republican ever to lose his party's nomination for re-election to the U.S. Senate. The result made him the latest GOP incumbent to fall to a Trump-backed primary challenger.

The turning point came in the closing days, when Donald Trump formally endorsed Paxton and called him a "true MAGA warrior." For a candidate carrying felony charges, an impeachment, and a public divorce, the endorsement supplied the validation that overrode Republican voters' concerns about his record — the very outcome Paxton had been betting on since announcing.

Source: Texas Tribune, NBC News, Associated Press

The Record He's Running On

Ken Paxton is asking Texas voters to send him to the U.S. Senate while carrying the following record:

Securities Fraud

Felony securities fraud charges filed in 2015 for allegedly defrauding investors. Paxton recruited investors into a tech company without disclosing he was being paid to do so — a violation of Texas securities law. The case was pending for nearly a decade before Paxton reached a pretrial diversion deal in 2024 without trial, admitting no guilt but agreeing to restitution, community service, and legal ethics training. The charges were officially dismissed on June 18, 2025, after he completed the requirements.

Impeachment by the Texas House

Impeached by the Texas House of Representatives in May 2023 on 20 articles, including bribery, abuse of public trust, and obstruction of justice. The Republican-controlled House voted overwhelmingly to impeach. The Texas Senate acquitted him in a party-line vote, but the underlying facts of the case — trading official acts for favors from donor Nate Paul — were never disputed.

Whistleblower Retaliation

Eight senior deputies reported him to law enforcement in September 2020, alleging he abused his office on behalf of Nate Paul. Paxton fired or forced out the whistleblowers. Four of them sued for wrongful termination, and a court later awarded them $6.6 million in April 2025.

Corruption Involving Nate Paul

Extensive evidence of a quid pro quo arrangement with Austin real estate investor Nate Paul. Paxton allegedly used the AG's office to help Paul in exchange for personal benefits, including employing Paxton's mistress and remodeling his home.

Affairs and Divorce

Multiple extramarital affairs, including with a state senator and a subordinate aide. His marriage to state Senator Angela Paxton began unraveling publicly when she filed for divorce on July 10, 2025, citing adultery — nearly two years after his impeachment acquittal. The divorce proceedings remain ongoing as of early 2026, with property disputes and court records that were ultimately unsealed in December 2025 after media lawsuits. The personal conduct became a public issue when it intersected with his official duties and the Nate Paul corruption case.

Election Denial and January 6

Led the failed Texas v. Pennsylvania lawsuit attempting to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Spoke at the January 6 rally. Repeatedly promoted baseless claims of election fraud. His actions on behalf of Trump's false election narrative were central to his political brand heading into the Senate race.

Abuse of Office

Documented pattern of weaponizing the Attorney General's office for personal, political, and donor-related purposes. Used state resources to pursue personal vendettas, protect political allies, and reward donors.

How Trump's Endorsement Decided the Primary

Paxton's political viability depended heavily on his relationship with Donald Trump. The Texas Attorney General spent years cultivating Trump's favor, most notably through aggressive and legally dubious efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The failed Texas v. Pennsylvania lawsuit — which legal experts widely condemned as frivolous — was widely interpreted as a bid for a Trump pardon on Paxton's pending securities fraud charges.

For most of the race, Trump stayed on the sidelines, and both Paxton and Cornyn openly courted his support. Trump had long-running tensions with Cornyn, who voted to certify the 2020 election and occasionally broke with him on key issues. That history made Cornyn vulnerable, but it was Trump's eventual choice that proved decisive.

In the days before the May 26 runoff, Trump formally endorsed Paxton, calling him a "true MAGA warrior." The endorsement reshaped the contest overnight, supplying the permission structure that let Republican primary voters look past Paxton's legal and ethical baggage. The roughly 28-point blowout that followed confirmed how essential that endorsement was — and how much Paxton's entire strategy had hinged on securing it.

Source: Texas Tribune, Associated Press, NBC News

Tim Dunn Walks Away

In a significant development, Tim Dunn — a West Texas oil billionaire who had been Paxton's biggest and most loyal donor for years — refused to back Paxton's Senate bid. Dunn, a major force in Texas conservative politics, had stood by Paxton through the securities fraud indictment, the whistleblower scandal, and even the impeachment.

But when Paxton announced his Senate campaign, Dunn walked away. The decision was widely seen as a signal that even Paxton's most committed financial backers had reached a breaking point. When your most devoted supporter — someone who stuck with you through criminal charges and impeachment — declines to fund your next campaign, it suggests fundamental doubts about your viability and character.

Dunn's withdrawal also had practical implications: Paxton needed to find new sources of major funding to compete with Cornyn, who entered the race with deep establishment support and a formidable fundraising operation. The loss of Dunn was a symbolic and strategic blow — yet in the end it did not stop Paxton, who rode Trump's endorsement and grassroots conservative energy to a decisive runoff win without his former patron.

Texas Monthly

Why Cornyn's Attacks Failed

The Cornyn campaign seized on Paxton's record, particularly the divorce and personal scandals. In a Republican primary, attacking a rival's personal life is traditionally risky — GOP voters often view such attacks as inappropriate or "going negative." But Paxton's record provided ample material that went well beyond personal conduct into the realm of criminal allegations and abuse of office.

Cornyn's strategy was to frame the race not as a policy contest, but as a choice about character and fitness for office. The campaign highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, the impeachment, the whistleblower retaliation, and the personal scandals as evidence that he was unfit to represent Texas in the Senate.

It did not work. Many in Paxton's base read the attacks as establishment elitism and disloyalty to a conservative fighter, and Trump's late endorsement effectively neutralized the character argument. When the votes were counted on May 26, Republican primary voters chose Paxton — record and all — by about 28 points, leaving Cornyn the first Texas Republican senator to lose renomination.

Source: The Hill, Texas Tribune

The General Election: Paxton vs. Talarico

Paxton's opponent in the November 3, 2026 general election is Democrat James Talarico, who won his party's nomination outright on March 3, defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett and avoiding a runoff. Talarico, a state representative from the Austin area first elected in 2018, is a former middle-school English teacher who holds a master's in education from Harvard and a Master of Divinity from Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.

The matchup reframes the stakes. Where the primary asked Republican voters whether Paxton's record disqualified him within his own party, the general election puts that record before the entire Texas electorate — moderates and independents included. Paxton carries the same felony charges, impeachment, $6.6 million whistleblower judgment, and personal scandals into a far broader and less favorable audience than a closed GOP runoff. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in roughly three decades, but Talarico's campaign is betting that Paxton's record makes this race the exception.

Source: Texas Tribune, CBS News, Associated Press

Where the Race Stands: The Polling

Every public statewide poll released in September 2026 showed Talarico ahead, by margins from one point to six. Most of those leads are inside the poll's own margin of error, so the accurate description is a close race that has tilted toward Talarico since early August — not a settled one. The last public poll to show Paxton ahead was Emerson's August 9–10 survey. The Texas Tribune summarized the state of the race on September 24: "Polls have found the race within the margin of error, with Talarico leading in the polling average and in every public poll conducted this month."

LV = likely voters; RV = registered voters. Undecided and third-party shares omitted from the table; Libertarian Ted Brown drew 2–3% where included. The table lists independent and media-sponsored surveys with published methodology. It excludes polls from groups tied to either side (for example, Texas Public Opinion Research, directed by a Democratic strategist, and Overton Insights' survey for the conservative Texas Public Policy Foundation) and a Republican internal poll of one state Senate district; those also showed Talarico ahead or tied. Polls are snapshots of a moment, not predictions.

The crosstabs show where the race divides. In Emerson's September survey, Talarico led among Hispanic voters 54% to 39%, and the two candidates' images had moved apart: Talarico 48% favorable to 42% unfavorable, Paxton 40% to 48%. Marist found independents favoring Talarico with 55%. Paxton's strongest group is older voters: AARP's survey found voters 50 and over backing him 53% to 40%, and described them as highly motivated to vote. Marist also found that 52% of voters expect Paxton to win regardless of their own preference.

Forecasters moved with the polls. On August 20, the Cook Political Report shifted the race from Lean Republican to Toss-up, and moved the governor's race from Solid to Likely Republican. Spectrum News For a state that has not elected a Democrat statewide in about three decades, a Senate race rated a toss-up five weeks out is itself the notable finding.

The Debates That Haven't Happened

In July, Talarico challenged Paxton to a series of televised debates and accepted invitations from three Texas media groups. On July 16–17, Paxton's campaign said he would debate. The proposed schedule:

• September 22 — NBC / Telemundo / Hearst, Rio Grande Valley. Invitation expired unanswered in mid-August; no debate was held.
• October (Dallas) — WFAA / Tegna. Talarico accepted; Paxton has not.
• October 13 — KXAN / Nexstar, Austin. Talarico accepted; Paxton has not.

By August 21, Texas Monthly reported, the Paxton campaign had "vowed to debate but failed to respond to any of the invitations," and the Hearst and NBC/Telemundo invitation had expired. Texas Monthly Maddux had earlier dismissed the proposed formats, saying "no Texan wants to watch James Talarico and two of his fellow far-left activists posing as moderators spew left-wing talking points." As of September 24, Paxton had not accepted any debate. That day, at the Texas Tribune Festival, Talarico challenged him to a debate on Fox News moderated by Bret Baier; Paxton's campaign did not respond. Texas Tribune

Early voting begins October 19 and Election Day is November 3. Whether he appears on a stage where his record can be raised in front of a statewide audience — without the option of ending the questions and walking off — remains open. He has spent much of his tenure avoiding unscripted press settings. On press evasion →

The Money: A Historic Fundraising Gap

The early general-election money race broke sharply against Paxton. For the second quarter of 2026 — April through June — Talarico's campaign reported raising more than $30 million, a record second-quarter haul for a U.S. Senate candidate, powered overwhelmingly by small donors, with roughly 97% of contributions of $100 or less. Paxton reported about $9 million over the same period, his best quarter to date, which his campaign cast as proof that conservatives were rallying to him. Talarico's total was more than triple Paxton's.

To close the gap, Paxton scheduled a July 22 Washington fundraiser headlined by Senate Majority Leader John Thune and other Senate Republicans, and set up a joint fundraising committee with the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Measured across the whole campaign, the disparity is wider still. Since the beginning of 2025, Talarico's campaign has raised a cumulative $72.0 million to Paxton's $16.8 million — less than a quarter of his opponent's total. By the Texas Tribune's accounting, Talarico has raised more at this stage than any Texas general-election candidate in the past decade.

Paxton's counter, offered in mid-August, was that the comparison is misleading and the momentum is turning. He noted that he began the general election on June 1 with "basically $0" while Talarico had just banked $30 million, argued that his opponent's money comes largely from California and New York, and said crowd energy had grown as voters returned from summer travel.

The Outside Money Arrives

In September the money race inverted. Paxton's own campaign remained far behind — it had spent about $465,000 on advertising through mid-September, against nearly $50 million from Talarico's campaign — but national Republican groups moved in to cover the gap. On September 22, the Texas Tribune reported that the Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Republican leadership, was booking another $30 million through its Texas affiliate, bringing its commitment to the race to $100 million. Republican groups spent about $103 million in September, against roughly $22 million for Talarico's side; total Republican general-election spending passed $140 million, including more than $19 million from the pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC and more than $16 million from Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Senate Majority PAC had committed no advertising money to Texas. The SLF figures came from a person familiar with the group's plans. Texas Tribune

Some of the money behind Lone Star Liberty is now the subject of a federal complaint. On September 2, Talarico's campaign manager filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that Paxton and his campaign treasurer, John Plishka, used Preserve Texas Inc. — a Virginia nonprofit Plishka incorporated, which does not disclose its donors — to route more than $1 million in four checks to Lone Star Liberty between February and May 2026, outside federal contribution limits. The complaint is an allegation; the FEC has not acted on it. The Paxton campaign did not respond to CBS News. A Preserve Texas spokeswoman said the group is an independent social-welfare organization "in full compliance with applicable law," that Plishka's role is limited to "recordkeeping, filings, and back-office support," and that it is "not established, financed, maintained, or controlled by any federal candidate." CBS News

No new candidate fundraising reports fell in this window. Third-quarter books close September 30, and the reports are due October 15.

Trump In, Establishment Republicans Wary

At the Republican midterm convention at Dallas's American Airlines Center on September 9, Trump called Paxton "the single greatest attorney general you've ever had" and promised, "I'll be coming back to Texas, because we have to elect Ken Paxton." Texas Tribune

Other prominent Republicans have kept their distance. At the Texas Tribune Festival on September 26, Karl Rove said that with John Cornyn as the nominee "this race would be over," adding: "But when you got a guy who's got multiple girlfriends, $200,000 worth of improvements in his house from a corrupt business guy for whom he does favors … and now it's in the court of public opinion." Rove did not say whether he would vote for Paxton. Texas Tribune

The record is also being made by people who worked for him. On September 8, David Maxwell — a former Texas Ranger who directed law enforcement for the attorney general's office and was one of the 2020 whistleblowers — appeared in a Talarico ad: "Ken Paxton ended my five-decade career in public service because I blew the whistle on his corruption. Today, I'm endorsing James Talarico because Texans deserve a Senator who serves the people — not a crook who serves himself." Texas Tribune The whistleblowers →

The Pen Ad

On August 14, 2026, the Talarico campaign released an ad built around one of the oldest and smallest items in Paxton's record: a $1,000 Montblanc pen taken from the Collin County Courthouse in 2013.

The pen belonged to McKinney attorney Joe Joplin, a gift from his wife, and he left it in the tray at the courthouse metal detector. When he could not find it, he asked a sheriff to review the security footage — which showed Paxton, then a state senator, picking it up and walking out with it. The Collin County Sheriff's Office contacted Paxton, who returned the pen. Joplin declined to press charges and no charges were filed; a Paxton spokesperson later characterized it as a simple mix-up. The episode was first reported by the Dallas Morning News in 2015 and surfaced again in Justin Nelson's 2018 campaign for attorney general.

In the 2026 ad, Joplin appears seated with the pen in front of him and delivers a single line: "I'm Joe Joplin, and I endorse James Talarico for the United States Senate." A Talarico spokesman, JT Ennis, drew the contrast the ad leaves unstated — Paxton is "the kind of guy who steals your pen," Talarico "the kind of guy who'd let you borrow his." The campaign ran it alongside a school-supply drive. The Paxton campaign had not publicly responded as of August 16.

The pen is trivial next to felony indictments and impeachment, and that is the point of the ad: it compresses a two-decade record into an object a voter can hold in mind. More on the pattern →

Questions About Property and Residency

Two investigations published in July 2026 put Paxton's personal finances and his home address at the center of the general election. On July 7, the Texas Tribune and ProPublica reported that he had voted in six elections while registered at a Collin County house he appears to have left. On July 16, the New York Times reported that Paxton and his trusts own at least 15 properties worth roughly $9 million — on a salary of about $153,000. He declined to answer questions on either subject at a July 21 campaign stop in Fort Worth and ended the press availability.

September added two more. A Texas Tribune/ProPublica review published September 4 found that Paxton's Senate financial disclosure reported no rental income from seven properties, left out $1.3 million in Utah condo mortgages, and omitted seven properties worth about $5.2 million; ethics experts said it appeared to violate federal law, and his campaign called it an attempt "to manufacture controversy where none exists." On September 18, KERA reported overdue property taxes on Hawaii land held by his blind trust. Texas Tribune KERA

Paxton Reverses on IVF

In June 2026, Paxton struggled visibly with the Republican Party's internal divide over in-vitro fertilization. In mid-June he called himself a "strong supporter" of IVF and backed the federal IVF Protection Act sponsored by Senators Katie Britt and Ted Cruz, aligning with President Trump. About a week later, on June 27, he reversed, telling the Washington Examiner that "we need to have restrictions, so that we don't lose fertilized eggs, if that's possible," and declining to commit to national IVF protections. The shift moved him toward the Republican Party of Texas platform, which calls on lawmakers to protect fetal life from "destructive practices, such as IVF and commercial surrogacy."

What a Senator Paxton Would Mean

If elected, Ken Paxton would bring to the United States Senate a record unprecedented in modern American politics. He would be:

• The only sitting senator to have been impeached by his own state legislature — The Texas House voted to impeach him on 20 articles involving bribery, abuse of office, and obstruction. Though acquitted by the Senate, the underlying facts were never disputed.
• The only senator to have faced felony criminal charges while in office — The securities fraud case was pending for nearly a decade before being resolved through a settlement that avoided trial.
• The only senator whose top staff collectively reported him to law enforcement — Eight senior deputies made a criminal referral alleging abuse of office in September 2020. Those who were fired or forced out later sued.
• The only senator to have cost taxpayers millions in court judgments for wrongful termination and retaliation — A Travis County judge awarded four whistleblowers $6.6 million in April 2025.
• A senator whose personal conduct intersected with alleged official corruption — The affairs were not just private failings; they were central to the impeachment case, with allegations that Paxton used his office to benefit a donor who employed his mistress.

This is not a typical conservative-versus-moderate primary. It is a test of whether a candidate with this record can hold major public office in the United States. The outcome will send a clear signal about the state of accountability in American politics.

Source: Texas Tribune, Associated Press, Texas Monthly

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Ken Paxton running for Senate in 2026?

Yes — and he won the Republican nomination. Paxton announced his candidacy on April 8, 2025, forced incumbent Senator John Cornyn into a runoff in the March 3, 2026 primary, and defeated him by roughly 64% to 36% in the May 26 runoff. He faces Democrat James Talarico, a Texas state representative, in the general election on November 3, 2026.

Who is winning the Texas Senate race, Paxton or Talarico?

As of late September 2026, Talarico holds a narrow lead. Every public statewide poll released in September showed him ahead, by margins from one to six points, including Emerson College/Nexstar (Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%; September 12-14; 1,000 likely voters; margin of error plus or minus 3) and NPR/PBS News/Marist (Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%; September 17-20; 1,139 registered voters; plus or minus 4.4). Most leads are within the margin of error. The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up.

Will Paxton and Talarico debate?

Unclear. Paxton's campaign said in July 2026 that he would debate, but as of September 24 he had not accepted any invitation. The first proposed debate, September 22 in the Rio Grande Valley, did not take place after the invitation expired unanswered. Talarico has accepted invitations from WFAA/Tegna in Dallas and KXAN/Nexstar in Austin (October 13) and has challenged Paxton to a Fox News debate. Early voting begins October 19.

What is the Ken Paxton pen incident?

In 2013, attorney Joe Joplin left a $1,000 Montblanc pen in a tray at the Collin County Courthouse metal detector. Security footage reviewed at his request showed Ken Paxton, then a state senator, picking it up and leaving with it. The Collin County Sheriff's Office contacted Paxton, who returned the pen. No charges were filed and a Paxton spokesperson called it a mix-up. In August 2026, Joplin appeared in a James Talarico campaign ad endorsing Talarico for the U.S. Senate.

Has Trump endorsed Paxton for Senate?

Yes. Trump endorsed Paxton in the days before the May 26, 2026 runoff, calling him a "true MAGA warrior." The endorsement is widely credited with powering Paxton's lopsided win over John Cornyn, who became the first Texas Republican senator to lose his party's renomination. Paxton's years of aggressive loyalty to Trump — including filing the Texas v. Pennsylvania election lawsuit — helped earn it.

Who is funding Paxton's Senate campaign?

Paxton's own campaign has raised far less than Talarico's: $16.8 million to $72.0 million from the start of 2025 through June 2026. National Republican groups have filled the gap. The Senate Leadership Fund has committed $100 million to the race, and Republican groups spent about $103 million in September alone, including money from Lone Star Liberty PAC and Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. Tim Dunn, Paxton's biggest longtime backer, declined to support the Senate bid. Talarico's campaign has filed an FEC complaint alleging illegal coordination involving Lone Star Liberty; it is an unproven allegation.

What is Paxton's record going into the Senate race?

Paxton carries an unprecedented record including felony securities fraud charges (resolved without trial), impeachment on 20 articles, a $6.6 million taxpayer-funded whistleblower judgment, multiple affairs, a divorce, documented patterns of abuse of office, and a role in the January 6 rally.